Time for political punditry
09.09.05 (12:44 am) [edit]
There are 8 days to go until the general election in New Zealand, and 9 days until the general election here in Germany. In both cases, surprisingly enough, the question as to which parties will coalesce to form the government remains unresolved. Undeterred by the uncertainty, I have decided it is time to put my punditry hat on, put my neck on the line and make a few election result predictions. Here goes:
In terms of predicting the result in New Zealand, the polls have been no help whatsoever. In the space of just 10 days, there have been polls suggesting a) a substantial lead for the centre-right National party; b) a substantial lead for the centre-left Labour party; c) that the two parties are absolutely neck and neck.
Which of those, if any, accurately reflects the way the country will vote next Saturday is anybody's guess. So, for my New Zealand punditry I just have to go on hunches and the "mood" I've been getting around the New Zealand political blogs and news outlets. Here are my predictions:
For those of you who have been following the New Zealand campaign, what do you reckon?
With respect to the polls here in Germany, they have at least been much more consistent and predictable than in New Zealand. For months now, they have been incidating that a centre-right coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP (Liberal Free Democrats) would have enough support to form a government with a narrow majority. However, just in the last week the tide has begun to turn and Gerhard Schröder's centre-left SPD has been increasing its support after languishing in the polls for months. For the most part, the SPD is pinching these votes not from the CDU/CSU (who have remained stable on around 42% across all the polls), but rather from the newly formed Left Party. This party is a combination of former Communists in the East and rebel leftist former members of the SPD in the West. At one stage the Left Party was riding high on 18% support in one early poll but, as you can see from the graphic to the right, which represents this poll released today, that support has dropped right away. It's also important to note that, although the support for Left + Centre-Left + Green is exactly equal to the support for Centre-Right + Liberal in this latest poll, the left bloc cannot form a government as both the Greens and the SPD have completely ruled out working in coalition with the Left Party.
In other words then, the polls here offer a more coherent indication of what might happen come Sunday. That said, my punditry below is based not just on the polls, but also on the feeling I've been getting from newspaper and television coverage here in Germany in recent weeks. Here are my predictions:
So, what do you think? Do you reckon I've hit the nail on the head, or am I way off the mark? If the latter, what do you think will happen come Saturday/Sunday, and why?
In each case, predictions 1 and 2 are the most important ones, as they indicate my best guess at who is going to be leading each country and in what political constellation. Just to up the punditry stakes a bit, if I get any or all of those wrong, I'm prepared to consider having to do or write something as "punishment" here on The Capital Letter. All reasonable suggestions in the comments will be considered.
New Zealand - General Election Saturday, 17th September 2005
In terms of predicting the result in New Zealand, the polls have been no help whatsoever. In the space of just 10 days, there have been polls suggesting a) a substantial lead for the centre-right National party; b) a substantial lead for the centre-left Labour party; c) that the two parties are absolutely neck and neck.
Which of those, if any, accurately reflects the way the country will vote next Saturday is anybody's guess. So, for my New Zealand punditry I just have to go on hunches and the "mood" I've been getting around the New Zealand political blogs and news outlets. Here are my predictions:
1. Labour will get the higher percentage of the party vote, but not by much.
2. Labour will form a centre-left government in coalition with the Greens and the Progressives.
3. Helen Clark, current NZ Prime Minister, will remain PM but will stand down well before the next election, thus going out on a high, rather than risk being rolled after fighting a fourth, losing election campaign in 2008.
4. Voter turnout will be extremely high.
5. Winston Peters, leader of the racist and bigoted New Zealand First Party, will not hold his Tauranga electorate seat, nor will his party reach the 5% threshold required for list candidates to get in to parliament. This, thank goodness, will mean the end of the party.
6. ACT, the right-wing, economically Liberal party, will neither win an electorate seat (Epsom is the only one even in the frame, and it won't happen) nor reach the 5% threshold. This will mean the demise of that party also.
7. Don Brash, leader of the National Party, and his campaign strategist, Murray McCully, will be the ones who (rightly) take the rap for botching what was looking a very promising campaign through incompetence, uncertainty and (though I hate to use the word) flip-flops. McCully will be binned as strategist and Don Brash will be rolled as leader within a year after the election.
For those of you who have been following the New Zealand campaign, what do you reckon?
Germany - General Election Sunday, 18th September
With respect to the polls here in Germany, they have at least been much more consistent and predictable than in New Zealand. For months now, they have been incidating that a centre-right coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP (Liberal Free Democrats) would have enough support to form a government with a narrow majority. However, just in the last week the tide has begun to turn and Gerhard Schröder's centre-left SPD has been increasing its support after languishing in the polls for months. For the most part, the SPD is pinching these votes not from the CDU/CSU (who have remained stable on around 42% across all the polls), but rather from the newly formed Left Party. This party is a combination of former Communists in the East and rebel leftist former members of the SPD in the West. At one stage the Left Party was riding high on 18% support in one early poll but, as you can see from the graphic to the right, which represents this poll released today, that support has dropped right away. It's also important to note that, although the support for Left + Centre-Left + Green is exactly equal to the support for Centre-Right + Liberal in this latest poll, the left bloc cannot form a government as both the Greens and the SPD have completely ruled out working in coalition with the Left Party. In other words then, the polls here offer a more coherent indication of what might happen come Sunday. That said, my punditry below is based not just on the polls, but also on the feeling I've been getting from newspaper and television coverage here in Germany in recent weeks. Here are my predictions:
1. Germany will have its first ever woman Chancellor in the shape of centre-right CDU/CDSU candidate Angela Merkel.
2. However, rather than leading a centre-right coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP as had been widely expected, she will be forced into a so-called grand coalition of centre-right CDU and centre-left SPD.
3. All three of the main minor parties, namely FDP, the Greens, and the Left Party will easily reach the 5% threshold required for list MPs to gain seats in the Bundestag. The Greens will poll slightly higher than the FDP on election day, and the Left Party will poll slightly higher than the Greens, though most of the Left Party's support will be in the states of the former East Germany.
4. Gerhard Schröder will not hold a ministerial position or be deputy Chancellor. Instead he will slip into the background and be a backbench MP.
5. As a result of failing to manoeuvre his party into a centre-right coalition government, the leader of the FDP, Guido Westerwelle, will be rolled within a year of the election.
6. The grand-coalition will be a disaster. The policies of both the major parties involved will have to be watered down so much to bring about the possibility of cooperation that it will fail to achieve any substantial reforms and no real progress will be made. This at a time when Germany desperately needs progress and reform.
7. The grand-coalition will collapse and will not last the full term. As a result, there will be new elections here in Germany well before they are scheduled (2009), unless both the Greens and the SPD renege on their promise not to work with the Left Party in this parliamentary term.
8. The failure of the grand-coalition will be extremely good for the smaller parties, which will experience an upsurge in support at the general election as voters attempt to avoid a repeat of the grand-coalition debacle.
So, what do you think? Do you reckon I've hit the nail on the head, or am I way off the mark? If the latter, what do you think will happen come Saturday/Sunday, and why?
In each case, predictions 1 and 2 are the most important ones, as they indicate my best guess at who is going to be leading each country and in what political constellation. Just to up the punditry stakes a bit, if I get any or all of those wrong, I'm prepared to consider having to do or write something as "punishment" here on The Capital Letter. All reasonable suggestions in the comments will be considered.
posted by: wiccachicky (reply)
post date: 09.09.05 (5:48 am)
This may be a very dumb question, but which one will you vote in? Or both? How does absentee balloting work in NZ?
posted by: newbie (reply)
post date: 09.09.05 (7:30 am)
not that i'm familiar with any of the details but your reasoning seems sound. I'm particularly interested to see the outcome in Germany. A woman in leadership...very, very interesting.
posted by: Uroskin (reply)
post date: 09.09.05 (5:02 pm)
I think I can agree with most of your predictions. Even if Labour does not win the majority ofthe vote, it still will have the most small party support to form a (minority) government. Brash will only survive as leader if National wins the most votes even if it can't form a government. Don't underestimate the stupidity of the Tauranga voters to bring back Winston. I predict Steve Maharey to be the next Labour leader. As you predict for Germany, there may be another NZ election sooner than later. For Germany I think the vote will be close but the turnout may not be (if you're anti-reform in the west you have not many places to go except withholding your vote from the SPD, voting Links in the west is rather useless)
posted by: newbie (reply)
post date: 09.09.05 (9:37 pm)
I haven't been following anything because I haven't been home, but when I got home on Thursday and checked the NZ news on Google I was ABSOLUTELY RIVETED by the EB thing. Not the 'Brash was lying' bit, but the fact that the EBs are getting involved in politics. They don't even vote! My, how things have changed...
The best thing about the whole scandal, though, is that it's free publicity for Ngaire Thomas' book. ("Behind Closed Doors.") It couldn't happen to a better person.
(Also, I used to know one of the 'Secret Seven.')
posted by: badaunt (reply)
post date: 09.09.05 (10:41 pm)
Sorry, that last newbie was me. Forgot to sign in.
posted by: Secret Samurai (reply)
post date: 09.10.05 (6:52 pm)
Returning briefly from exile...
The first thing they tell you in political science is: never make predictions. Nevertheless, here are mine.
1. Labour will not get the higher percentage of the party vote (this from a Labour supporter), but that's because they haven't gobbled up their potential coalition partners. National will probably get around 44 percent, Labour 40, The Greens 7, Winston 5, Dunne 1, Anderton 1, Maori 1. Or thereabouts.
2. Winston WON'T win Tauranga, but it's anybody's guess whether he'll make five percent. I think he'll squeak in.
3. ACT will, of course, be out. Did anyone see the old guy at the rest home asking Rodney why he didn't come around when there wasn't an election on?
4. On the party vote alone, National, Winston and Dunne have the numbers to form a government, but this doesn't take into account the overhang. The Maori Party is likely to win around five or six of the maori seats, without the corresponding party vote share. This means that the right will have to capture around 51 or 52 percent of the vote to form a government.
5. The Greens, Labour and Anderton will form a coalition, the Maori Party will support the coalition on supply and demand, but not join the government, and the others will be in opposition.
6. Don Brash will quit as opposition leader - he was never up to politics anyway. John Key will take his place. Murray McCully will stay on to advise Key on PR, but God alone knows why.
7. Clark will lead the 4th Labour government into its 4th election.
On the German election:
Can't the Lefties support Scroeder and the Greenies from outside the coalition on supply and demand? This is generally how things work in proportional representation, where minority governments are the norm.
posted by: Secret Samurai (reply)
post date: 09.10.05 (6:52 pm)
Returning briefly from exile...
The first thing they tell you in political science is: never make predictions. Nevertheless, here are mine.
1. Labour will not get the higher percentage of the party vote (this from a Labour supporter), but that's because they haven't gobbled up their potential coalition partners. National will probably get around 44 percent, Labour 40, The Greens 7, Winston 5, Dunne 1, Anderton 1, Maori 1. Or thereabouts.
2. Winston WON'T win Tauranga, but it's anybody's guess whether he'll make five percent. I think he'll squeak in.
3. ACT will, of course, be out. Did anyone see the old guy at the rest home asking Rodney why he didn't come around when there wasn't an election on?
4. On the party vote alone, National, Winston and Dunne have the numbers to form a government, but this doesn't take into account the overhang. The Maori Party is likely to win around five or six of the maori seats, without the corresponding party vote share. This means that the right will have to capture around 51 or 52 percent of the vote to form a government.
5. The Greens, Labour and Anderton will form a coalition, the Maori Party will support the coalition on supply and demand, but not join the government, and the others will be in opposition.
6. Don Brash will quit as opposition leader - he was never up to politics anyway. John Key will take his place. Murray McCully will stay on to advise Key on PR, but God alone knows why.
7. Clark will lead the 4th Labour government into its 4th election.
On the German election:
Can't the Lefties support Scroeder and the Greenies from outside the coalition on supply and demand? This is generally how things work in proportional representation, where minority governments are the norm.
posted by: Secret Samurai (reply)
post date: 09.10.05 (6:52 pm)
Returning briefly from exile...
The first thing they tell you in political science is: never make predictions. Nevertheless, here are mine.
1. Labour will not get the higher percentage of the party vote (this from a Labour supporter), but that's because they haven't gobbled up their potential coalition partners. National will probably get around 44 percent, Labour 40, The Greens 7, Winston 5, Dunne 1, Anderton 1, Maori 1. Or thereabouts.
2. Winston WON'T win Tauranga, but it's anybody's guess whether he'll make five percent. I think he'll squeak in.
3. ACT will, of course, be out. Did anyone see the old guy at the rest home asking Rodney why he didn't come around when there wasn't an election on?
4. On the party vote alone, National, Winston and Dunne have the numbers to form a government, but this doesn't take into account the overhang. The Maori Party is likely to win around five or six of the maori seats, without the corresponding party vote share. This means that the right will have to capture around 51 or 52 percent of the vote to form a government.
5. The Greens, Labour and Anderton will form a coalition, the Maori Party will support the coalition on supply and demand, but not join the government, and the others will be in opposition.
6. Don Brash will quit as opposition leader - he was never up to politics anyway. John Key will take his place. Murray McCully will stay on to advise Key on PR, but God alone knows why.
7. Clark will lead the 4th Labour government into its 4th election.
On the German election:
Can't the Lefties support Scroeder and the Greenies from outside the coalition on supply and demand? This is generally how things work in proportional representation, where minority governments are the norm.
posted by: Secret Samurai (reply)
post date: 09.10.05 (6:52 pm)
Returning briefly from exile...
The first thing they tell you in political science is: never make predictions. Nevertheless, here are mine.
1. Labour will not get the higher percentage of the party vote (this from a Labour supporter), but that's because they haven't gobbled up their potential coalition partners. National will probably get around 44 percent, Labour 40, The Greens 7, Winston 5, Dunne 1, Anderton 1, Maori 1. Or thereabouts.
2. Winston WON'T win Tauranga, but it's anybody's guess whether he'll make five percent. I think he'll squeak in.
3. ACT will, of course, be out. Did anyone see the old guy at the rest home asking Rodney why he didn't come around when there wasn't an election on?
4. On the party vote alone, National, Winston and Dunne have the numbers to form a government, but this doesn't take into account the overhang. The Maori Party is likely to win around five or six of the maori seats, without the corresponding party vote share. This means that the right will have to capture around 51 or 52 percent of the vote to form a government.
5. The Greens, Labour and Anderton will form a coalition, the Maori Party will support the coalition on supply and demand, but not join the government, and the others will be in opposition.
6. Don Brash will quit as opposition leader - he was never up to politics anyway. John Key will take his place. Murray McCully will stay on to advise Key on PR, but God alone knows why.
7. Clark will lead the 4th Labour government into its 4th election.
On the German election:
Can't the Lefties support Scroeder and the Greenies from outside the coalition on supply and demand? This is generally how things work in proportional representation, where minority governments are the norm.
posted by: Secret Samurai (reply)
post date: 09.10.05 (6:53 pm)
Returning briefly from exile...
The first thing they tell you in political science is: never make predictions. Nevertheless, here are mine.
1. Labour will not get the higher percentage of the party vote (this from a Labour supporter), but that's because they haven't gobbled up their potential coalition partners. National will probably get around 44 percent, Labour 40, The Greens 7, Winston 5, Dunne 1, Anderton 1, Maori 1. Or thereabouts.
2. Winston WON'T win Tauranga, but it's anybody's guess whether he'll make five percent. I think he'll squeak in.
3. ACT will, of course, be out. Did anyone see the old guy at the rest home asking Rodney why he didn't come around when there wasn't an election on?
4. On the party vote alone, National, Winston and Dunne have the numbers to form a government, but this doesn't take into account the overhang. The Maori Party is likely to win around five or six of the maori seats, without the corresponding party vote share. This means that the right will have to capture around 51 or 52 percent of the vote to form a government.
5. The Greens, Labour and Anderton will form a coalition, the Maori Party will support the coalition on supply and demand, but not join the government, and the others will be in opposition.
6. Don Brash will quit as opposition leader - he was never up to politics anyway. John Key will take his place. Murray McCully will stay on to advise Key on PR, but God alone knows why.
7. Clark will lead the 4th Labour government into its 4th election.
On the German election:
Can't the Lefties support Scroeder and the Greenies from outside the coalition on supply and demand? This is generally how things work in proportional representation, where minority governments are the norm.
posted by: secret samurai (reply)
post date: 09.10.05 (6:53 pm)
oops
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (7:30 am)
Reply to: secret samurai
It was a good comment, but not necessarily so good that it needed saying five times! ;-)
Actual response to follow.
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (8:19 am)
Reply to: secret samurai
Damn it, I had written a long response point by point, and tBlog ate it. Aaarrgghh! Anyway, the upshot was this:
Your predicitions for NZ all sounds perfectly feasible, it will be interesting to see how it pans out. And secondly, with reference to the Linkspartei cooperating on confidence and supply with the SPD/Greens, it ain't gonna happen. Both the SPD and the Greens have ruled out any sort of cooperation with the Lefties, and the lefties are campaigning on the platform of being a strong opposition presence. Thanks for your input.
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (8:21 am)
Reply to: wiccachicky
I have already voted in the New Zealand election. I cast a special vote at the Embassy on Friday. I am not allowed to vote in the German election. Only German citizens may vote here, (which is another bugbear of mine.)
In NZ, citizens living abroad (that's me) can vote as long as they have been in New Zealand at some point during the previous 3 years. For permanent residents, it's 1 year. Seems a very fair system to me, as I've written on this blog before.
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (8:23 am)
Reply to: themarina
Yes, the prospect of having a woman chancellor is exercising everyone's imagination at interest here at present. NZ and Canda are of course miles ahead on that front, what with two women PMs in a row in NZ (not to mention *all* the other top jobs in the country) and now a woman GG in Canada. Excellent stuff.
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (8:26 am)
Reply to: Uroskin
Interesting thoughts. Thanks for your input. I certainly agree with you about the options being pretty limited in Germany at this election. I'm suffed if I know how I'd vote if I were allowed to vote here. I know pretty clearly what I want to see happen, but none of the parties are offering anything close. Picking the lesser of five evils would be tough, that's for sure. I'll be interested to see what happens to Dr. Don, especially if, as you suggest, National get the highest % of the party vote but can't form a govt. If that happens, they'll only have themselves to blame. They have not really grown the right wing vote at all, just crushed all their potential coalition parties. Interesting tactic. Maybe someone should have reminded them we are working with MMP these days, not FPP.
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (8:32 am)
Reply to: badaunt
Haha! I hoped you'd comment on this. I remember a while ago you wrote about your mother being a member of a religious sect-like thing and I wondered at the time if it was the Brethren you were talking about. And sure enough, it would seem
That whole thing really pisses me off more than I can say. Quite apart from the fact that I find the Brethren movement pretty wacky and abhorrent on just about all counts, to my mind, a religious grouping that refuses to participate in the democratic system by voting because they think that God is responsible for putting governments in place and they don't wish to second guess him (what a stupid stupid idea!?!), has no place meddling in the democratic process by lobbying one way or the other.
Can you tell I was interested in (and bothered by) that particular scandal too? :-)
posted by: secret samurai (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (12:38 pm)
oops,
I meant 5th Labour.
One more possibility - If the points I made above pan out, Dunne will probably support the Left to keep the Maori Party out, if he gets enough votes.
posted by: badaunt (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (5:47 pm)
Reply to: BerlinBear
The EBs used to be dangerous only to themselves (and the people who left). Now they're dangerous to everybody.
What I'm hoping is that with the light of publicity shining on them they'll have to open up a bit... but I'm not counting on it. They have a way of spinning everything in their own favour, to their own people, who have very little access to the usual sources of information.
Also, attacks on them from outside tend to bolster their position anyway. "Of course they're attacking us. That just PROVES we're right. Evil always attacks good..."
posted by: Kiwi in Zurich (reply)
post date: 09.11.05 (9:42 pm)
I've voted. By fax interestingly. All quite easy really. You just download your voting papers, get them verified by someone who qualifies (practically anybody) and then fax them to the electoral office.
I hope SecretSamurai is right with their predictions.
posted by: lindy (reply)
post date: 09.12.05 (12:05 pm)
Boy, you sure aren't afraid to stick your neck out. I'm sure we'll all be looking to tick off your list when the news comes down the wire. :)
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.14.05 (11:50 pm)
Reply to: Kiwi in zurich
Yeah, I've already voted too. I went to the embassy. It was fun, though I was a bit stunned that I didn't ahve to provide any id at all. What's with that?
posted by: BerlinBear (reply)
post date: 09.14.05 (11:51 pm)
Reply to: lindy
Yeah, I've never been one to keep my opinions to myself, as I'm sure you've noticed by now. I could go horribly wrong on those predictions. We'll see at the weekend.
posted by: lindy (reply)
post date: 09.15.05 (4:55 am)
Reply to: BerlinBear
I'll try not to fall off the grace wagon by pointing and laughing if you get it wrong. hahaha. Goodness knows, I have zero room to talk.
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