Predictions looking shaky
09.15.05 (12:11 am) [edit]
Well, this'd completely stuff my predictions from last week about what's going to happen in the German election this weekend: the Leipzig-based newspaper the Leipziger Volkzeitung is quoting an anonymous CDU source, who claims that CDU candidate Angela Merkel would consider forcing fresh elections, rather than enter into a grand coalition (my prediction) with her centre-left SPD rivals. Officially though, the party is denying that this is the case.
Apparently, Merkel and the CDU have already sought legal advice from constitutional experts about how to go about this. the way it would work is this: despite not having a majority in the Bundestag, Merkel would attempt to get voted in as Chancellor. That would fail, due to the lack of a majority. She would then try again, which would still fail, and then a third time. The third time around, a "relative majoirty" (what exactly that is is not clear to me at this stage) would suffice for her to win the vote. The German President, Horst Köhler, would the have seven days to decide whether to appoint her as Chancellor despite a lack of a majority, or to dissolve parliament and call a new election immediately. Presumably, Merkel would inform the President that she doesn't believe she can run the country with a minority government and request a new election. Complicated, but fascinating.
It remains to be seen whether this threat is a real one or just a clever tactic to attract voters in the last few days before the election. But if she sticks to it, she will blow all my predictions out of the water.
N24 has all the details (in German, I'm afraid). I can't find an English link to this story yet, but when it reaches Deutsche Welle or the BBC, I'll update.
Let noone say that the election campaign here in Germany has been dull. Crikey!
Apparently, Merkel and the CDU have already sought legal advice from constitutional experts about how to go about this. the way it would work is this: despite not having a majority in the Bundestag, Merkel would attempt to get voted in as Chancellor. That would fail, due to the lack of a majority. She would then try again, which would still fail, and then a third time. The third time around, a "relative majoirty" (what exactly that is is not clear to me at this stage) would suffice for her to win the vote. The German President, Horst Köhler, would the have seven days to decide whether to appoint her as Chancellor despite a lack of a majority, or to dissolve parliament and call a new election immediately. Presumably, Merkel would inform the President that she doesn't believe she can run the country with a minority government and request a new election. Complicated, but fascinating.
It remains to be seen whether this threat is a real one or just a clever tactic to attract voters in the last few days before the election. But if she sticks to it, she will blow all my predictions out of the water.
N24 has all the details (in German, I'm afraid). I can't find an English link to this story yet, but when it reaches Deutsche Welle or the BBC, I'll update.
Let noone say that the election campaign here in Germany has been dull. Crikey!
posted by: Lindy (reply)
post date: 09.17.05 (9:58 am)
What's fascinating to me is that German politics are like a high level game of chess. Multiple moves planned in advance, it seems like it's a strategists dream, or nightmare, depending on how one chooses to look at it. It's amazing.
posted by: Andrea (reply)
post date: 01.19.06 (3:50 pm)
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