First prognoses from German election are in

Well, well, well! The polling booths are closed here in Germany and the first predictions and projections of the results are in - and they are astounding. According to the most recent projections less that 2% of the party vote separate the two main parties. Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU topped the party vote, with around 35%. But, surprisingly enough, the SPD appears to have polled at around 33.5% or perhaps fractionally higher. Of the small parties, the Liberal FDP appears to have performed the best, with marginally more than 10% of the party vote. Both the Greens and the Left Party have around 8%.

These projections, if they prove to be accurate, have all of the following implications:

1. Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU has performed considerably worse than expected.
2. Gerhard Schröder's SPD has performed better than expected.
3. CDU/CSU do not have enough of the vote to form a coalition government with their preferred partner, the FDP.
4. SPD do not have enough of the vote to form a coalition government with their preferred partner, the Greens.
5. The only possible coalitions which could form a majority government are the following: SPD + Green + FDP (a so-called "traffic light coalition", based on the colours of the parties - ruled out by the FDP); CDU + FDP + Green (a so-called "Jamaica coalition", again based on the colours of the parties - not yet categorically ruled out by anyone, but tricky to manage); SPD + Green + Left Party (ruled out by all three parties); SPD + CDU (a so-called "grand coalition" - not ruled out by anyone but neither Merkel nor Schröder are talking like that's the solution they want). And the thing with all these coalitions is: they are all problematic. In other words, at this stage, just as in New Zealand, it's pretty much a dead heat, and noone but noone knows yet which coalition will form a government, let alone who is going to be Chancellor.

What is most astonishing is that both Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder are claiming the mandate to build a coalition around their own party. In other words, they both claim that they will be German Chancellor and leader of the government in the next German parliament. Of course, they can't both be Chancellor, but it remains to be seen which of them proves to be right.

Fascinating stuff. The television stations are bringing nothing but confusion, wonder, disappointment (especially from the CDU/CSU camp), and most of all questions and queries about what on earth happens next. At present it is nothing but speculation, especially given that the actual results are not yet in, and that the parties have not yet begun coalition talks.

It seems that noone is the winner on the day. I wouldn't even dare to make a prediction at this stage how this is going to turn out.

For those of you interested in following the results as they come in, try the following sources:
ARD's election coverage. [German].
ZDF's election results. [German]
BBC News coverage. [English]
Deutsche Welle election coverage. [English]

If you can work out who on earth is going to be running this country in the next parliament, and how, please feel free to explain it in the comments!